Company Description: PepsiCo, Inc. is a major international producer of branded beverage and snack food products.
Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number
PEP is trading at a discount to only 3.) above. Since PEP's tangible book value is not meaningful, a Graham number can not be calculated. The stock is trading at a slight premium to its calculated fair value of $62.86. PEP did not earn any Stars in this section.
Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
PEP earned one Star in this section for 3.) above and earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1952 and has increased its dividend payments for 40 consecutive years.
Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA
PEP earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $628. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as PEP has. The stock's current yield of 3.23% exceeds the 3.1% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.
Memberships and Peers: PEP is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat, a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index and a Dividend Champion. The company's peer group includes: The Coca-Cola Company (KO) with a 2.6% yield, Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. (DPS) with a 3.3% yield and Fomento Econ (FMX) with a 1.7% yield.
Conclusion: PEP did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned one Star in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of two Stars. This quantitatively ranks PEP as a 2-Star Weak stock.
Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $70.90 before PEP's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 40 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 3.0%.
Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 4.3%. This dividend growth rate is below the 5.1% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. PEP has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.
PEP enjoys stable end markets, predictible cash flows and leading global market positions. With soft drink consumption declining is the U.S., PEP has turned to international markets. The company's diverse portfolio can mitigate the impact of poor conditions in any one of its markets. PEP's direct store delivery system allows it to leverage its impressive portfolio of brands.
My concerns are PEP's debt as a percent of total capital and its free cash flow payout. Both have grown since I last reviewed PEP. Debt as a percent of total capital grew from 53% in September 2011 to its current 55%, while free cash flow payout grew from 65% to 71% over the same periods. Each of these are outside of my acceptable level. In addition, PEP is trading above my calculated fair value of $62.86, so I will not add to my position bit will continue to monitor the stock.
Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.
Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in PEP (1.7% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio) and long in KO. See a list of all my dividend growth holdings here.
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